View / The Green New Deal fades as climate activism evolves

Three trends in progressive politics contributed to the shift. The first was the social justice “awokening” of the first Trump term, which rumbled through every green group. The 133-year old Sierra Club lost donors and members with a focus on “antiracism” that paused some of its programs, like trips to Israel; the League of Conservation Voters apologized for a movement that “centered the experiences, wants, and needs of white folks while excluding and ignoring people of color.”

Sunrise joined that discourse, stating in 2020 that “if the Movement for Black Lives wins, it also advances our collective mission of ensuring that we enact a Green New Deal.” The 2023 Hamas attack on Israel added another mission of justice for Palestine. Some Sunrise affiliates had balked at working with “Zionists” before Israel started bombarding Gaza, aided by US taxpayers.

That was the second trend: After Oct. 7, Gaza activism drew in more progressives who’d spent their earlier youths working on climate.

“Wars, occupations, environmental degradation, ecocide, huge emissions — they go hand in hand, as Palestinians know very well,” Greta Thunberg said last year, when asked how she had transitioned from climate action to antiwar flotillas. “In what ways are Palestine and climate justice not connected? Why should I not care about Palestine? I am a human being.”

The shift was noticed, and often not appreciated, by major donors. Hundreds of millions of dollars are invested every year in environmental activism. How much of that, some wondered, had gotten redirected?

“We gave them money, and now all they do is talk about Palestine,” Alex Soros said of Sunrise to New York magazine last year. “It’s ridiculous.”

Donors adjusted better to a third trend: The reorganization of progressive and Democratic campaigning around “affordability.” The Green New Deal imagined a total economic transformation that would create millions of jobs while, necessarily, leaving fossil fuels in the ground. The Trump administration had reversed environmentalism’s biggest recent gains, but it wasn’t delivering cheaper energy as a result.

Campaigners now see a new opportunity, and a new brand, as defenders of affordable clean energy against an administration literally paying to dismantle those projects. And this has jibed with research from centrist Democratic groups, which finds that voters are skeptical of politicians who talk about “climate change” but open to hearing about lower costs. The looming catastrophe that motivated the activists of the 2010s does not move the voters of the 2020s.

“I don’t think a goal that ends in 2050 or 20-whatever has been especially motivating to people,” said David Kieve, the president of the Environmental Defense Fund. “We have an obligation to make sure that people understand that some of the solutions we’re pushing for are available immediately; we are not talking about the Jetsons here.”

Seven years ago, when Ocasio-Cortez and Markey offered their first Green New Deal resolution, Corbin Trent was handling the congresswoman’s press requests. AIPAC wasn’t even funding anti-progressive PACs yet. The world had changed. Campaigners would have to change with it.

“My thinking is that you now jettison the whole Green New Deal brand, because it’s tarnished,” Trent said. “I think it’s served its purpose of elevating the idea of big, bold change. It’s time to pivot on to the next phase of that: Economic affordability. Averting climate change, or reversing it, is a secondary yet important part of the new work.”

Nicholas Wu contributed.

The Sunrise Movement achieved clear success driving up the salience of the climate issue; with other green groups, it had pressured Democrats running for president in 2020 to talk about climate plans that could remake the economy and meet a 2030 deadline for carbon reduction.

It’s entirely possible that, come the 2028 Democratic primary, it returns to the same aggressive rope-line tactics that helped move Biden to the left on greenhouse gas emissions.